How does Polymarket work?

Forget everything you think you know about betting. Polymarket isn’t a sportsbook where you place a wager against “the house.” Think of it more like the stock market for reality, where you trade on the outcomes of real-world events. It’s a place to put your money where your mouth is and prove you know what’s coming next, whether it’s in politics, tech, or culture.

So, how does this machine work? Let’s break it down.

At its heart, every market is a simple “Yes” or “No” question. For example: “Will a human step on Mars by 2030?” This question creates two tradable assets: “Yes” shares and “No” shares.

Here’s the key: the price of a share is the probability of the outcome.

Share prices run from $0.01 to $0.99. If “Yes” shares are trading at $0.30, the market is saying there’s a 30% chance it’ll happen. That means “No” shares will be at $0.70. The two sides always add up to $1.00, or 100%.

Your job is to find the edge. If you think the odds are way higher than 30%, you buy “Yes” shares cheap. As more people come around to your way of thinking, the price goes up. You can then sell your shares for a profit before the event even happens, or you can hold on until the end. This is the core of how to make money on Polymarket.

When the event date hits, the market has to settle. This isn’t some guy in a back room deciding the winner. Polymarket uses a decentralized oracle—a secure, automated system—to report the real-world result. If the outcome is “Yes,” all “Yes” shares are now worth exactly $1.00 each. “No” shares? They’re toast—worth $0. This is how Polymarket pays out, clean and simple. You can then figure out how to withdraw from Polymarket.

The whole thing runs on the Polygon blockchain, which means it’s fast, cheap, and most importantly, you’re in control of your own funds. There’s no central company holding your cash. This naturally leads to questions about the business, like who owns Polymarket and how Polymarket makes money. The platform takes a small fee from the winners, not the losers, so it only profits when you do.

Ultimately, Polymarket is a game of information. It’s a constant battle of wits where the most informed players win. The platform’s odds have become a go-to source for real-time forecasts, often proving more nimble and accurate than traditional polls. The debate over how accurate Polymarket is is a hot topic for a reason.

So, if you think you have a handle on what’s going on in the world, this is where you prove it. It’s not just about being lucky; it’s about being right.